NAR: Home Prices to Recover in 2008

Daily Real Estate News July 11, 2007
NAR: Home Prices to Recover in 2008

The latest economic forecast by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® shows home prices recovering in 2008 as housing inventory falls from current levels.

“Buyers now have an overwhelming advantage given the wide selection of homes available in many markets,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist. “But with profit margins coming under pressure, homebuilders will limit new construction well into 2008. This should help the overall inventory level to move steadily into a more balanced state.”

NAR says existing-home sales will begin picking up late this year, rising to a total of 6.11 million for 2007 and 6.37 million in 2008. Those numbers are both lower than last year's 6.48 million.

Meanwhile, new-home sales are projected to reach 865,000 in 2007 and rise to 878,000 next year, compared with 1.05 million in 2006. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are forecast at 1.43 million units this year and 1.44 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million last year.will start to rise early next year.

Prices Seen Rising for New, Existing Homes

Existing-home prices are likely to rise 1.8 percent to a median of $222,700 in 2008 after a 1.4 percent decline this year to $218,800.

The median new-home price should rise 2.2 percent to $245,400 next year following a 2.6 percent drop in 2007 to $240,100.

“Markets that sharply reduce new construction in 2007 will generally experience respectable price increases in 2008,” Yun says. “Local conditions vary considerably, but with historically low mortgage interest rates this summer and sustained job gains, it could be a good time for first-time buyers with a long-term view to test the housing waters.”

Other Predictions: Mortgage Rates, Jobs, GDP

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is estimated to average 6.7 percent during the second half of this year, and fluctuate around 6.6 percent in 2008.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will probably be 2.0 percent in 2007, compared with a 3.3 percent growth rate last year; GDP is forecast to grow 2.8 percent in 2008.

The unemployment rate is likely to average 4.6 percent in 2007, unchanged from last year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is projected at 2.6 percent in 2007, down from 3.2 percent last year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income should rise 3.0 percent this year, up from a 2.6 percent gain in 2006.

— REALTOR® Magazine Online