More bubble talk

From today's Washington Business Journal by John McCalla (on the opinion page) ...

...No one answers the question, "Is there a [housing] bubble?" because
journalists are not psychic. And in this case, they are more likely bored.
However, if we ask enough, guess what will happen?

True, market corrections will happen anyway. True, Greater Washington's
demand is out of hand enough that even Loudoun County was enticing buyers into
big-ticket mortgages and even bigger commutes.

But don't tell me the histrionic heandlines don't keep impressionable, but
otherwise optimistic, readers from open houses. Real estate bubble stories
usually hinge on the "figures lie, liars figure" setup. Yes, home sales decreased,
as any given story may report, and many did. But read on and you'll see it was
November to December decrease. Duh. Here's what many of the stories should also
be reporting: Homes in suburban Maryland, Northern Virginia and the District all
saw average sales prices in 2005 jump at least 15 percent from the year before,
says the Greater Capital Area Association of REALTORS. And yes, during the same
period, each area also experienced a decrease in the number of units sold. This
may or may not be a bubble. It also may or may not be the end of the world. Only
God and that screaming guy on the subway know for sure ...

... But the mainstream media won't readily report this kind of stuff. For
some, it's more fun to predict widespread disaster than boring economic
realities.

Amen, John McCalla. Thanks for that refreshingly equable description of the current market. Yes, the market is different. But, honestly, the market is amazingly fluid and constantly changing. For heaven's sake, everyone, let's stay calm.

I hate to admit it in public, but I watch Fox 5 News every evening, primarily because it's the only local news program on at a sane hour. Fox 5 News is one of the worst offenders when it comes to whipping viewers up into a lather with it's headlines and teasers. Fox News would never run a teaser for an upcoming housing-related story that says, "This just in: DC housing market remains largely stable and robust! Next on Fox News!!" This is the truth, but who would tune in for that? Yet, it's just this kind of rhetoric that has continued to bouy the housing-bubble frenzy. Enough already. REALTORS and consumers alike should keep an eye on the facts and not just the headlines.